Sunday, November 26, 2006

cout << Thoughts.Brief

I finally have gotten back to this blogging thing. I haven't had a lot to say, or at least, not a lot that blogs particularly well. Vague vacuous thoughts about the meaning of life, the average character change per day a person experiences, and the endlessness of life just don't make good blog posts. Or at least, I haven't had the insight or motivation to make good blog posts.

As a side note, playing Halo doesn't make a good blog post either, but is extremely satisfying.

In the spirit of Thanksgiving, I came across this article which talks about our tendency to be thankful for what changes, rather than simply for what we have. Perhaps one of his most catching comments is near the end where he talks about how pre-1750s, there was no expectation of constant economic growth. I remember that from Aristotle as well - his economics assume a "fixed pie" of wealth, with the primary question being how to distribute the pie.

Here's a brief excerpt:
We assume that we deserve all we receive. Yet until 1750, societies had not learned the secret of long-term per capita economic growth.

Since then, the West has grown economically by 2% per year for about 260 years. This compounding process has made society 1,700 times richer than it was. Even in terms of per capita growth, we are hundreds of times richer, and there are more of us to enjoy wealth and give thanks for it.

We have grown accustomed to a process that is nothing short of miraculous by the standards that prevailed before 1750. We pay no attention to it. We do not even understand it. Congress surely doesn’t. We expect it to go on forever...

...Wealth is not our birthright. It is the product of thrift, future-orientation, and the private property social order. These principles were articulated in the first five books of the Bible, the Pentateuch. It took over 3,000 years for one society – the West – to come to believe them enough to put them into action.

It is the moral order that led to the social order for which we should be continually thankful. The goodies this social order produces are merely reminders of the fundamental gift.

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Perhaps I've Erred

A man is convinced he is dead. His wife and kids are exasperated. They keep telling him he's not dead. But he continues to insist he's dead.

They try telling him, "Look, you're not dead; you're walking and talking and breathing; how can you be dead?" But he continues to insist he is dead.

The family finally takes him to a doctor. The doctor pulls out some medical books to demonstrate to the man that dead men do not bleed. After some time, the man admits that dead men do not bleed.

The doctor then takes the man's hand and a needle and pokes the end of his finger. The man starts bleeding. He looks at his finger and says, "What do you know? DEAD MEN DO BLEED!"
(Joke source, which is another interesting tangent on my thoughts for today.)

So elections are over. And sadly, the doves aren't fair targets. But I've been thinking about what it takes to convince me votes were wrong.

If our country thrives, do I attribute it to not taking radical policies too far, and that we would be far more successful if my policies were implemented? Or I decide that I was wrong, and others were right, and if I had been more supportive of change, we would do better yet?

If a policy I supported (say, the Iraq war) goes, say, unfortunately, what does that say about my original view? Do I blame implementation? Good idea - bad execution? Do I blame the opposition? Do I blame timing? Fate? All of these can be can be blamed without requiring me to re-examine my original views supporting the war on Iraq.

Here's another scenario: Suppose that the Iraqi invasion had gone stunningly well; the people welcomed us, embraced democracy, and setup a stable government. Would that say anything about the views of critics who talk about the sanctity of life and the sovereignty of nations? What about the criticism that our government was badly in err, if not outright dishonest, about the WMD programs? Would any amount of success address those issues?

I've been thinking about the success of the affirmative action ban (Prop 2) and the failure of the school funding (Prop 5). What does it take for voters to change their minds that their view was incorrect?

If educational funding flounders, does that mean Prop 5 should have been passed? Or does it mean that it would have floundered worse if it had passed?

The affirmative action consequences may be even harder to tell: My guess is that an amazing number of failures will be blamed on it, regardless of the incompetence, laziness, or circumstances involved. It's far easier to say "My organization was thwarted by the lack of affirmation action" than to say "Honestly, people just don't want to provide funding for X any more."

Statistically, I'd guess diversity will drop in many places. It's easy to quantify diversity by "What percentage of are involved?" It's hard to qualify diversity. One can achieve a racially diverse group who all grew up in poverty in Detroit. Does racial diversity translate to a diverse background and perspectives? Probably not. However, I wouldn't want to be the one selling sound bytes to the media on how my all-white college was truly a diverse place.

I don't know what it takes for me to decide that I'm wrong politically. But I'm 99.9% sure everyone who disagrees with is wrong. :-P